Adapt or die

Do you understand how exponential technologies threaten your business?

In 1996, the inventor of the digital camera stood in front of Kodak's top management. He told them that his invention would revolutionize the way pictures are taken. At the time, the invention had been around for 20 years, and had only seen quite slow progress. Kodak's top executives knew that, and they dismissed the invention as inconsequential to their business. Digital cameras would never be powerful enough to take pictures as sharp as classic cameras, according to the analyses. They were confident that their products were future-proof. At the time, they were profiting precipitously with money and had 140,000 employees. In 2012, Kodak went bankrupt after years of convulsions.

What was it Kodak didn't see?

Kodak is just one of many examples of companies which have been knocked off the pitch by new technologies and which dismissed the early signs with a confident shrug. And it's certainly not easy to spot. A technology that is in exponential growth, cheats at first. An exponential curve starts by being flat. Even flatter than a curve of even linear growth. For a period of time, the linear curve may look stronger. But suddenly the exponential curve rises -- yes -- exponentially. When Kodak's top executives analyzed the technological evolution of digital cameras, they saw 20 years with a very flat curve. And they considered it a linear curve. Therefore, it actually made good sense to reject the invention, since it would only be able to compete with analog cameras sometime in the distant future. But the curve was exponential, and in the years after 1996, as you know, the development of digital cameras went unimaginably fast.

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More and more people are seeing what's coming

Blockbuster and Nokia are other well-known examples of companies which did not realize the danger in time. And perhaps many more are on the way. The prospect of being caught off guard by new technologies and solutions may well be on its way to hitting, for example, the financial sector (IT solutions), the automotive industry (self-driving cars), the hotel industry (Airbnb) or the taxi industry (Uber). Some industries are desperately fighting back through legal means. It's futile. Some companies and industries look on apathetically. They will be gone or fundamentally changed in a few years. But there are also some who see what is coming. We sense that many of our customers are very curious about these changes. They are interested in analyzing and exploring how they can get themselves ready for a future that no one knows what looks like. And it's not just small fast-paced entrepreneurial firms. The big companies, public and private, are starting to budge on it. And how do they do it then?

It's about daring to challenge your own business

Steve Jobs once said, “If we don't cannibalize ourselves, someone else will.” The key to success is to dare to challenge yourself. You must create the spaces where you can challenge the existing business model and build the business model of the future. Here are a few gripes:
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• Put the most skilled talents to attack your own business model, with all their energy and abilities. It's the talent development of the future.
• Get disruption from outside. Invite the customer or citizen in for a dialogue and ask for dry beatings and loving feedback.
• Drop fragmented leadership courses. And instead, appoint leaders to implement the strategy, sharpening the organization's attention to the necessity of change. This is the leadership development of the future.

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And then it's all about YOU! As a leader, you must dare to challenge what your contribution should be. Do you sit passively in the spectator seats and watch — where it is safe? Or do you play out on the field — where it is demanding and where you seize the opportunity? It is your job as a manager to prepare your company for a future that may be unknown and threatening — and that holds huge business potential.